2026 FinTech Predictions: Insights from Daniel Ruhman of Cumbuca

We spoke with Daniel Ruhman, CEO and Co-Founder of Cumbuca, the first proxy for Brazil's regulated ecosystem, about the forces reshaping financial services in 2026. As Brazil's Central Bank tightens compliance requirements and instant payment systems like Pix evolve, Daniel shares his perspective on consolidation, AI-initiated payments, and the blind spots banks may be overlooking.

Over to you Daniel - my questions are in bold:

What's the biggest shift you expect across financial services in 2026?

The biggest shift will be a wave of consolidation driven by rising regulatory and capital requirements. Brazil's Central Bank has made compliance far more demanding, and many FinTech's simply won't be able to meet the new standards. As a result, only well-capitalised and operationally disciplined players will remain. This marks a turning point: after years of innovation-first policymaking, the emphasis is now on stability. The companies that can operate sustainably within stricter frameworks, not around them, will define the next chapter of financial services.

Which emerging technology will have the most practical impact on banks and the FinTechs that support them?

AI-driven payments will have the most immediate and practical impact. We're moving from AI assisting users to AI acting on their behalf, and payments will be the first area where that becomes real. OpenAI's Instant Checkout and Mastercard's agentic tokens show how quickly this is developing. In markets like Brazil, Pix already provides the programmable, card-less infrastructure AI needs to initiate transactions securely and instantly. As those systems converge, AI-initiated payments will shift how banks think about authentication, transaction flows and customer interfaces.

What customer behaviours or expectations will most challenge banks and financial service providers?

Customers will increasingly expect payments to be instant, low-cost and infrastructure-agnostic. With Pix evolving into credit and recurring payments, moving money becomes essentially free and automatic, and that changes what consumers consider "normal." When the transaction itself becomes a utility, customers judge providers on everything around it: clarity, speed, data insights and overall experience. As more behaviour shifts into real-time flows, banks built around card fees or settlement delays will struggle to match those expectations.

What risks or blind spots do you think the industry is underestimating as we move into 2026?

The biggest blind spot is how quickly margins will erode once credit and recurring payments migrate onto instant-payment rails like Pix. Many institutions still rely on traditional card economics or settlement float, but those revenue streams shrink dramatically when payments become instantaneous and nearly costless. Another risk is underestimating the governance required for AI-initiated payments. The infrastructure already exists for AI to execute transactions, but without strong rules around consent and limits, organisations may not be prepared for how fast this behaviour scales.

If you were advising a bank's leadership team today, what strategic priority should they focus on to stay competitive in 2026 and beyond?

Banks should prioritise building within regulatory frameworks rather than treating compliance as a constraint. As requirements intensify, regulatory resilience becomes a competitive advantage. At the same time, they need to shift their business models away from reliance on transaction-based revenue and toward value around the payment: credit, insights, FX and customer experience. And as AI and real-time payments converge, banks should design for a world where money moves instantly and may increasingly be initiated by agents rather than humans.

Thank you Daniel! You can connect with Daniel at his LinkedIn Profile and find out more about the company at https://www.cumbuca.com/en/.